Mark Cuban Says AI Could Be the Biggest Threat to Social Security Nobody Is Talking About

Most debates about Social Security focus on an aging population and the program's long-term finances.

Mark Cuban thinks lawmakers are overlooking something else. He has argued that automation could reduce the payroll taxes that fund programs like Social Security, putting senior benefits under growing pressure if enough jobs are replaced.

His proposed solution is a tax on robots and AI tools, charged as "a straight amount per hour of use, per robot or cobot." Whether Congress ever embraces that idea or not, it adds a new angle to one of retirement's biggest debates.

Where Social Security's money comes from and why AI changes the picture

Social Security depends on people working and earning paychecks. Every time someone gets paid, 6.2% of their wages goes to Social Security, while their employer contributes another 6.2%.

Together, those payroll taxes help fund the monthly benefits millions of retirees receive. In 2025, about 185 million workers paid into the system, generating roughly $1.3 trillion in payroll tax revenue.

When a person is no longer earning wages because their job has been taken over by AI, Social Security no longer receives payroll taxes from that job. The work may still be getting done, but the funding that normally comes from a worker's paycheck is no longer there.

What the lost revenue actually looks like

Take a software project that takes about 1,600 hours to complete. If a person is paid about $60 an hour to do that work, those wages would generate roughly $14,700 in Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes. If the same project is completed by AI instead, there is no worker earning those wages, so those payroll taxes are never collected.

The concern is what happens if the same pattern spreads across millions of jobs. McKinsey estimates that up to 30% of all work hours in the U.S. could be automated by 2030.

Many of those jobs are likely to change rather than disappear, but if fewer wages are being paid, less payroll tax would flow into Social Security each year.

Why the trust fund timeline could move closer

Social Security paid out about $1.6 trillion in benefits in 2025 while collecting about $1.3 trillion in payroll taxes. The difference came from the trust fund, which has been covering the gap for over a decade.

The 2026 Trustees Report projects the retirement trust fund will be exhausted in 2032, at which point ongoing payroll taxes would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits, a roughly 22% cut for everyone collecting.

If automation grows faster than current projections assume, payroll tax revenue could fall more quickly, leaving the trust fund with less time before it runs short.

As Cuban wrote, "Every country will face the prospect of national instability if the economics get out of whack, which is far more expensive than ... taxes on your robots."

What's been proposed to address it

Mark Cuban believes companies should help replace the payroll tax revenue that could be lost if AI takes over more work.

His proposal would charge a fee for each hour an AI system or robot performs work that would otherwise have been done by a person, with that money going toward Social Security. He has even suggested the conversation could one day move from "tax the rich" to "tax the AI."

A report led by Bernie Sanders backed a similar approach, recommending an automation tax to help replace lost payroll tax revenue and support workers whose jobs are affected by AI.

But not everyone agrees this is the right answer. Critics say an AI tax could slow innovation and would be difficult to apply because it is not always clear what should count as AI or a robot.

Others believe Congress should focus on more familiar ideas, such as raising the Social Security payroll tax cap, instead of creating a new tax tied to automation.

What this means for your Social Security

If you're already receiving Social Security, or expect to claim in the next few years, this is unlikely to affect your monthly check anytime soon. The retirement trust fund still has reserves, and any changes to the program would require action from Congress.

The picture is a little different for younger workers. If artificial intelligence changes the kinds of jobs available or puts downward pressure on wages over time, it could affect the earnings that eventually go into your Social Security record.

Since your future benefit is based on your highest 35 years of earnings, lower earnings over a long period could lead to a smaller monthly benefit in retirement.

Bottom line

Mark Cuban believes artificial intelligence could put new pressure on Social Security by changing the way the program is funded. Whether that prediction proves right or not, it is a question lawmakers are likely to face as AI becomes a bigger part of the economy.

Congress has not reached that debate yet, but the technology is moving much faster than the policy around it. Following that conversation as it develops can help you make the right moves long before any decisions are made.