The Social Security COLA May Be Delayed Again - Here's What Retirees Should Know Before October

Waiting for your Social Security COLA might already feel like a long countdown, and last year retirees had to wait even longer.

The announcement arrived more than a week later than expected, leaving millions wondering when they'd finally know how much their checks would rise. Now October is coming back around, and so is the question of whether another delay could happen.

A few key dates should offer early clues about the 2027 COLA and whether everything is still on schedule. Here's what to watch as October gets closer and what it could mean for your senior benefits next year.

What pushed last year's COLA announcement back

Last year's federal government shutdown began October 1, forcing the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to pause the September inflation report Social Security needed to calculate the COLA.

The report was supposed to arrive October 15 but didn't come out until October 24. Social Security announced the 2.8% COLA that same day, while the increase itself still took effect on schedule for benefits payable in January 2026.

Why another COLA delay looks less likely this year

This year's September inflation report is scheduled for October 14. That would provide the final CPI-W number SSA needs to calculate the 2027 COLA, although SSA currently says only that it would announce the COLA sometime in October.

A bipartisan funding measure passed by the Senate would keep the government open through December 11, making another October shutdown less likely if the House approves it. Until that happens, another delay can't be completely ruled out, but retirees have more reason to expect an on-time announcement this year.

Why August gives retirees the first real clue

Social Security calculates the COLA using CPI-W inflation data from July, August and September. The first piece of that calculation arrives in mid-August, when BLS releases July's inflation numbers.

With only one month available, you still won't know the final COLA. But July's reading could give you a better idea of whether current projections are on track because it's the first number that would actually count toward your 2027 increase.

By September 11, when August's data arrives, two of the three months would be in place, bringing retirees another step closer to the final COLA in October.

What the current estimate looks like

The Senior Citizens League currently projects a 3.8% COLA for 2027, up from the 2.8% increase that took effect in January. On the average retired-worker benefit of about $2,084, that would add roughly $79 a month before any deductions.

That estimate could still move as new inflation numbers come in, especially if costs such as energy and healthcare rise faster or slower than expected.

Why your January increase may be smaller than the COLA

The COLA tells you how much your Social Security benefit would rise before deductions, but that may not be the amount you actually see in January. If your Medicare Part B premium comes directly out of your check, any increase in that premium could take a bite out of your raise.

That happened this year, when the standard Part B premium rose from $185 to $202.90 a month. The Senior Citizens League found that Part B premiums increased faster than the COLA in seven of the 10 years from 2017 through 2026, which helps explain why a COLA could sometimes feel smaller once it reaches your bank account.

Many retirees are protected by the hold-harmless provision, which generally prevents a higher Part B premium from making their Social Security payment smaller than it was the year before. But the premium increase could still use up some or even all of your COLA.

CMS announced the 2026 Part B premium last November, so the 2027 figure would likely arrive around the same time this year. Once that number is available, you'll have a much better idea of what your January increase could look like after Medicare comes out.

Why a bigger Social Security raise can still feel small

A larger COLA may sound like good news, but it usually means prices have been rising faster, too. Social Security raises benefits to help retirees keep up with inflation, so a 3.8% increase would largely be responding to higher costs that have already worked their way into your budget.

That means a larger check doesn't necessarily give you more room to spend. If healthcare or other everyday expenses have risen along with your benefit, much of that extra money may already have somewhere to go.

Bottom line

Retirees have good reason to feel a little more confident about getting the COLA announcement on time this October. And as the summer inflation numbers roll in, you won't have to wait until then to get a sense of how your 2027 raise is looking.

How much of that raise actually reaches your budget would depend partly on Medicare premiums. Knowing what's left after those deductions could help you make the right moves and start 2027 with a better idea of what you'll actually have to spend.

You May Also Like

$200 Bonus + Up to 5% Cash Back

Earn a $200 bonus after spending $500 on purchases in your first 3 months from account opening. Member FDIC

SPONSORED

23 Ways To Get Money Without Getting A Second Job

By FinanceBuzz Editors

How To Save Money on Car Insurance: 12 Ways to Lower Rates

By Elyssa Kirkham

10 Things Seniors Born Between 1941-1969 Could Take Advantage Of

By FinanceBuzz Editors

19 Dumbest Things Smart People Waste Money On

By Team FBZ

7 Moves If You Want to Stop Living Paycheck to Paycheck

By FinanceBuzz Editors

7 Clever Ways to Crush Your Debt

By FinanceBuzz Editors

Save Money and Get Huge Discounts on Everyday Purchases

AARP Benefits

• Huge discounts on travel, groceries, prescriptions and more
• Access to financial planning resources and health tools
• Join AARP and get 25% off with automatic renewal

Become a member now!

---

Subscribe Today

Unlock the Best Banking Deals and Bonuses

From high-yield savings accounts to cashback checking and sign-up bonuses, we bring you the best banking offers to grow your money smarter.

or

SEE TOP BANKING OFFERS →

By submitting this form you agree to receive emails from FinanceBuzz and to the privacy policy and terms