Gas Prices Are Soaring In These Midterm Swing Districts

The climbing prices at the pump are making it even more difficult for people to cope with increasing bills, and if you live in a swing district, you might see even steeper gas price increases. A new analysis mapped gas prices across the most competitive midterm House districts and found that these districts also face some of the highest fuel costs, a factor that might influence voting and impact the midterm election.

Where gas prices are the highest

Gas is currently most expensive in America throughout swing districts in the Pacific Corridor, Mountain West, Northeast, and Great Lakes. The districts most impacted face numerous economic issues, including high state fuel taxes, limited oil refining opportunities, and fuel supply disruptions that the ongoing war with Iran is only exacerbating.

In the Pacific Corridor, including California, Oregon, and Washington, prices are the highest in the country, ranging from $4.70 to more than $6.00 per gallon. The Mountain West, including Arizona, Nevada, and Alaska, have seen rapid increases in price, plus residents often drive long distances, making the high costs even more painful. New York has a high population density and high taxes, as well as high price volatility at the pump. The Great Lakes have seen some of the most dramatic spikes in gas prices recently.

The soaring gas prices are a cost-of-living reality check for voters in these regions.

A closer look at higher gas prices

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation has reached 4.2% year-over-year, and the energy index has sharply climbed 23.5%. The BLS reports that gas prices increased 7% in May alone.

Gas prices have increased sharply since the war with Iran began, and they were the biggest driver of inflation in April and May. AAA reported that over Memorial Day weekend, gas prices were the highest they'd been in four years.

The factors affecting gas prices

According to the U.S. Oil & Gas Association, several factors affect gasoline prices. Global crude oil cost, refining costs, distributions and marketing costs, and federal and state taxes all impact the wholesale costs that gasoline retailers pay. Retail stations are also subjected to local factors that could impact prices, including their store location, fuel delivery method, the volume purchased, and other expenses like labor costs and real estate costs.

Why regional price gaps occur

There's a significant difference in gas prices by state because of the factors unique to each state. For example, state fuel taxes vary significantly. California has the highest gas tax at 70.9 cents per gallon, while Alaska's tax, the lowest, is just 8.95 cents per gallon. Gas taxes help fund state expenses like road construction, and drivers often pay these taxes at the pump.

States like California face some unique logistical challenges in their fuel supply chain. California has limited logistical connectivity to other refinery hubs, like in the Gulf Coast. California's refinery capacity is limited, resulting in a fuel shortfall and leaving the state dependent on replacement fuels from other sources, such as Asia. As a result, any supply chain disruptions could impact areas like California and the West coast particularly hard.

The war with Iran and its impact on gas prices

The war with Iran has had a tremendous impact on gas prices. In April, crude oil prices were around $126 a barrel after Iran's leader announced the Strait of Hormuz would remain shut. If oil prices stay around $100 a barrel, the prices could drive up inflation and slow economic growth.

Gas prices tend to increase quickly during times of conflict, but they're much slower to fall once tensions have eased. Economists call it the "rockets and feathers" dynamic.

When bad news hits, prices soar like a rocket as consumers rush to the pump to fill up and the supply chain reacts by raising prices. The return to lower prices is much slower, like a feather floating down. Some retailers may keep prices high until there's competition to lower them, further delaying the price decrease.

Looking forward

It may feel like there's no end in sight to the high gas prices, but there is hope. National gas average prices have declined for the third straight week. As of June 11, the national average was $4.129, down from $4.241 a week ago and $4.520 a month ago. If tensions with Iran cool, gas prices may continue to decrease.

Bottom line

It's difficult to predict just what might happen with the gas prices this summer, but Gas Buddy warns that this summer could be the most expensive and volatile summer in years. According to Gas Buddy's 2026 Summer Travel Survey, gas prices could reach $4.80 per gallon through the end of the summer. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open, experts say that it could take over a year for gas prices to fully recover.

If you're on a fixed income or tight budget, be sure to factor in continued fuel cost uncertainty when planning any summer travel or major driving expenses. It might be worth looking for ways to boost a fixed income and bring in extra money until gas prices return to normal.

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