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Meta's Biggest Earnings Risk This Quarter Is Also the Strongest Bull Case for the Next Three Years

Muse hits 5 million downloads in 22 days as Citi models $27B by 2030

By Damilola Esebame, CFEI® , Edited by Laura Hohenstein

Updated Oct. 13, 2026

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Meta Platforms (META) launched its Muse artificial intelligence (AI) agent on September 8, and the app crossed 5 million downloads within 22 days, but the compute costs to run each agentic session could push capital expenditure (capex) guidance higher and compress near-term earnings.

Wells Fargo flagged 2027 as the earnings low point for Meta's product cycle, and tracking signs of financial success in the company's AI shift depends on whether high-margin Muse revenue begins accumulating by 2028.

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Muse reached 5 million downloads faster than ChatGPT and Grok

Muse launched on September 8, 2026, in the United States (U.S.) and Canada, and it reached 5 million U.S. downloads by September 30, taking 22 days to hit a milestone that ChatGPT needed 56 days and Grok needed 103 days to reach, Crypto Briefing showed.

The app held the number-one free app spot on the U.S. App Store for more than 12 consecutive days after launch, reaching more than 3 million weekly users and more than 1 million daily prompts, and Meta's own advertising accounted for nearly half of daily impressions.

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Wells Fargo raised its price target to $1,000 from $796 with an Overweight rating

Wells Fargo raised its price target on Meta to $1,000 from $796 and maintained an Overweight rating, marking the second increase in roughly two weeks after a prior raise from $640 to $796, BeInCrypto reported. Gawrelski expects Meta's Q3 earnings commentary to set muted expectations for near-term Muse monetization, and he forecasts earnings estimates to rise steadily after 2027 as the market prices in AI product revenue.

Gawrelski described fiscal year 2027 as the trough for earnings per share (EPS), writing that he can "see FY27 as trough EPS of new product cycle, akin to 2022 beginning of Reels." The Reels comparison gives you a precedent for how Meta manages spending cycles, where short-term margin compression funded a feature that became a core advertising revenue stream.

Citi models $27 billion in annual Muse revenue by 2030 from transactions

Citi analyst Ronald Josey models $27 billion in annual Muse revenue by 2030, with approximately $23 billion from transaction-related fees, and that projection equals roughly 12% of Meta's trailing twelve-month revenue, The Motley Fool showed.

Management expects most Muse revenue to come from fees on agent-facilitated transactions rather than subscription plans, giving you a conversion metric to track as the company discloses adoption data in future quarters.

Muse handles email, travel, and shopping in sandboxed virtual sessions

Muse runs on Meta's Muse Spark model version 1.3 and handles tasks in sandboxed virtual environments that act on your behalf without exposing personal data, Crypto Briefing reported.

The agent manages email, fills out forms, and browses the web, completing administrative work that frees your time.
Muse books travel and handles shopping through those sandboxed sessions, automating the commerce tasks for you.
Meta's 3.6 billion daily active users across Instagram, Facebook, and its messaging apps provide a built-in distribution channel for the AI agent that no standalone competitor can match.

Shares fell 7.95% or more after three of the last four earnings releases

Meta shares declined 7.95% or more after three of the last four quarterly earnings releases, a pattern driven by rising capex weighing on free cash flow that you should factor into your expectations heading into Q3 results.

Accelerating depreciation from AI infrastructure spending will add pressure to future operating income, and Muse requires significant compute power while Meta is not yet generating meaningful revenue from the app, the Motley Fool showed.

Meta gained roughly 20% since the Muse debut versus 1.5% for the S&P 500

Meta shares gained approximately 20% from the September 8 Muse launch through early October compared with a 1.5% rise in the S&P 500 Index over the same period, reflecting investor enthusiasm for Muse's early adoption numbers, BeInCrypto noted.

JPMorgan raised its price target to $920 and argued Muse could become the most widely used consumer AI app since ChatGPT. The stock at roughly 23 times forward expected earnings prices in continued growth, and any capex guidance increase could narrow the margin of safety in your position, The Motley Fool documented.

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Revenue from excess compute rentals could disappear as Muse absorbs capacity

Gawrelski flagged that Muse's growing user base could lead Meta to pause plans to rent excess compute capacity to outside customers and redirect those resources toward running the AI agent's sessions in-house, The Motley Fool reported.

Meta had planned to generate revenue by renting surplus computing capacity to other companies, and the decision to retain those resources for Muse eliminates a revenue stream you may have factored into your earnings model.

Bottom line

Wells Fargo's $1,000 price target signals confidence that Meta's AI spending will pay off beyond the 2027 earnings trough, and the must-have investing apps for tracking capex guidance can help you position before the stock reacts to Q3 results.

Citi's $27 billion revenue projection by 2030 gives you a long-term benchmark to weigh against the near-term spending drag. Muse's pace to 5 million downloads in 22 days demonstrates the adoption velocity the revenue model needs to scale.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.

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