SoFi's Losing Streak Has Traders Eyeing a Rival Stock - Here's Which One

SoFi Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:SOFI) has fallen nearly 40% year-to-date despite delivering record revenue and earnings beats in both the first and second quarters of 2026.

Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) earned a Morgan Stanley upgrade to Overweight with a $150 price target on September 1, 2026, implying roughly 43% upside. Spotting which fintech is doing better financially on the metrics that matter is worth the effort, and this is the side-by-side breakdown that separates the two.

SoFi posted record Q2 revenue of $1.2 billion and still fell 8.9%

SoFi delivered adjusted net revenue of $1.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 43% year over year, with adjusted earnings of $0.12 a share, beating consensus estimates, 24/7 Wall St. detailed. Loan originations hit a record $14.8 billion, up 69% year over year, and deposits climbed $5.3 billion to $45.5 billion.

Shares plunged 8.9% on July 29, 2026, after management raised full-year adjusted net revenue guidance to between $4.75 billion and $4.85 billion while keeping profitability targets unchanged, according to Yahoo Finance. Heavy selling followed because management merely maintained its full-year adjusted EBITDA target at approximately $1.6 billion and adjusted net income near $825 million. Investors viewed the stagnant profit forecast as a sign that accelerating revenue growth will not translate into higher near-term margins.

Morgan Stanley upgraded Robinhood to Overweight with a $150 target

Analyst Mike Cyprys raised Robinhood from Equal-Weight to Overweight and lifted the price target from $124 to $150 on September 1, 2026, Benzinga stated. Cyprys said expanding product capabilities are improving the underlying economics of Robinhood's 28 million customer base by driving higher assets, activity, and captured revenue per user.

Morgan Stanley projects a 23% revenue compound annual growth rate through 2028 to reach $8.0 billion, with EBITDA margins expanding from 48% in 2026 to 53% in 2028, as highlighted by Benzinga. The firm expects a 28% EPS compound annual growth rate from $1.99 in 2026 to $3.28 in 2028.

Prediction markets generated $156 million and surpassed equities and crypto

Robinhood's prediction markets business brought in $156 million in Q2 2026 revenue, up from roughly $10 million a year earlier, with fewer than 2 million users participating, Benzinga revealed.

• Event contracts revenue of $156 million surpassed equities trading at $129 million and crypto at $100 million.
• Users traded a record 13.6 billion event contracts in Q2, more than 10 times the year-earlier figure.
• July 2026 alone saw 6.1 billion contracts, roughly 20 times the July 2025 level.

Much of the growth stemmed from one-off events like the World Cup and midterm elections, raising questions about sustainability, Insider Monkey observed.

Robinhood's retirement accounts doubled to $26.5 billion in assets

Robinhood Retirement assets under custody more than doubled year over year to $26.5 billion across approximately 1.8 million funded accounts as of early 2026, the company's SEC filing showed. Robinhood Strategies, its advisory product, expanded to over 200,000 funded customers and $1.3 billion in assets under management.

Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma said on the Q2 earnings call that prediction market customers are more likely to hold a retirement account, supporting the thesis that new products lift assets per customer rather than adding another fee line, according to a Benzinga analysis.

SoFi's lending model makes it sensitive to interest rates in a way Robinhood is not

SoFi generates the majority of its revenue from lending, which means rising Treasury yields directly squeeze its funding costs. Personal loans, student loans, and mortgages all carry interest rate risk that flows through the income statement. When yields climb, the cost of funding those loans increases and compresses the spread SoFi earns.

Robinhood's revenue mix is weighted toward transaction fees, subscription income from Gold, and now prediction markets, none of which carry the same rate sensitivity. Your portfolio's exposure to interest rate risk differs significantly depending on which fintech you hold.

Robinhood's Q2 revenue topped SoFi's by $100 million on a larger customer base

Robinhood posted $1.31 billion in Q2 revenue on 28.4 million funded customers, while SoFi posted $1.2 billion on 15.8 million members, Quartz documented. Robinhood generated $46 per funded customer in the quarter compared with SoFi's approximately $76 per member, but Robinhood's revenue is growing 32% year over year versus SoFi's 43%.

Robinhood Gold subscribers reached 4.8 million, up 39% year over year, providing a recurring revenue stream with higher margins than transaction-based income, Robinhood Q2 2026 reports confirmed. Platform assets of $369 billion, up 32% year over year, and record net deposits of $21.7 billion indicate growing customer engagement.

Risks for both stocks heading into the fourth quarter

Robinhood's prediction markets revenue may not repeat at the same level. The $156 million quarter benefited from the World Cup and midterm election cycles, and future quarters without comparable catalysts could see a meaningful drop. Regulatory risk from a recent Ninth Circuit ruling on sports event contracts adds more uncertainty.

SoFi's risk centers on whether management raises profit guidance at the next earnings call. Two consecutive beats without a guidance raise have eroded investor confidence. A third flat outlook could push the stock lower even on strong operational results, and you may want to consider how much patience your portfolio timeline allows.

Bottom line

SoFi has delivered record revenue and earnings beats in 2026 while watching its stock fall nearly 38%, punished for keeping profit guidance flat. Robinhood just earned a Morgan Stanley upgrade to $150 on the strength of prediction markets, retirement account growth, and a revenue mix less sensitive to interest rates.

Deciding where to start investing additional fintech capital depends on whether you prioritize SoFi's 43% revenue growth from a rate-sensitive lending model or Robinhood's diversifying revenue streams and expanding product suite at 32% growth. The comparison is about which risk profile and growth trajectory fits your own income needs and time horizon.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.

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