Trump’s Policies Could Shrink Social Security Checks by $2,152 a Year, Study Warns

You probably know exactly how far your Social Security check stretches each month. Between groceries and household bills, there's often little left over, so losing another $180 could mean some uncomfortable choices, especially if you're living on just Social Security.

A new economic study warns that President Donald Trump's immigration policies could eventually leave retirees with roughly that much less to spend each month.

The connection might surprise you, since it comes down to the workers paying into Social Security and what their numbers could mean for your future benefits. Here's what to know.

A closer look at the study predicting smaller benefits

An October 2026 report by Economic Insights and Research Consulting estimates that President Trump's immigration policies could reduce the average retiree's Social Security benefits by $2,152 a year, or 8.6%, starting in 2034. The potential loss is tied to fewer immigrant workers paying into the program.

The study was commissioned by America's Voice, an advocacy group that supports more welcoming immigration policies. The $2,152 figure is a projection based on current policies continuing, not an official estimate from Social Security or a cut that's certain to happen.

Fewer workers could mean less money for Social Security

Social Security relies on payroll taxes from today's workers to pay benefits to current retirees. Right now, about 2.6 workers pay into the program for every person collecting benefits, and the trustees expect that number to fall to around 2.3 by 2035.

Immigrants help support the program because many arrive during their working years and start paying Social Security taxes long before they retire. In fact, Social Security's actuaries estimate that an additional 100,000 immigrants each year would improve the program's long-term finances by about 0.10% of taxable payroll.

With fewer immigrants entering the workforce or more workers leaving through deportations, Social Security could collect less in taxes, making it harder to fund future retirement benefits.

Undocumented workers contribute billions to the program

Many undocumented immigrants pay Social Security taxes even though they generally can't collect retirement benefits themselves. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, these workers contributed about $24 billion in Social Security taxes in 2024, while a separate analysis by ITEP estimated their contributions at $25.7 billion in 2022.

When these workers are deported, Social Security loses the taxes they would have paid, without necessarily saving much on future benefit payments.

The potential $884 billion cost of large-scale deportations

The Penn Wharton Budget Model looked at several possible deportation scenarios and found that all of them would leave Social Security worse off financially.

Under its most extensive scenario, which assumed a decade of deportations followed by a permanent halt to unauthorized immigration, Social Security's deficits could increase by about $884 billion over 30 years.

The researchers also estimated that the retirement trust fund could run out of reserves roughly six months earlier.

Social Security was already facing a difficult financial future

Social Security was already facing funding problems as more Americans retired and fewer workers paid into the program. Lower immigration could make things worse by further reducing the number of workers contributing payroll taxes.

In their 2026 report, Social Security's trustees cited lower immigration forecasts as one reason for the program's worsening finances. They now expect the retirement trust fund to run out of reserves in 2032, leaving enough income to cover about 78% of scheduled benefits.

The study's estimated 8.6% reduction in 2034 comes from a separate analysis of immigration policies, while the trustees' projected 22% shortfall reflects Social Security's overall funding outlook. The two estimates shouldn't simply be added together because they use different assumptions and could overlap.

What you can do now to protect your retirement income

Check your estimated benefits through your my Social Security account at SSA.gov, then test your budget against a smaller version of that benefit. Trying it at around 20% lighter, roughly the shortfall the trustees project if nothing changes, shows how big a gap you might have to close on your own. If a cut that size would strain your essentials, you have found something worth acting on while you still have working years left.

On timing, you should also resist the urge to claim Social Security early because of worries about future cuts. Filing before your full retirement age permanently reduces your monthly benefit, while waiting until 70 could increase it.

Bottom line

You shouldn't have to spend your retirement worrying about what Washington might do to your Social Security check. The $2,152 warning is concerning, but it's still a projection, and there's time for lawmakers to address the problem before retirees face cuts.

For now, finding simple ways to save money in retirement could help you build a little more financial freedom. Every extra dollar you set aside today is one less dollar you'll have to worry about tomorrow. And whatever happens with Social Security, having more say over how you spend your retirement is always a good thing.

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Author Details

David Maina, CPA

David Maina, CPA, is a writer for FinanceBuzz with eight years of experience covering personal finance, with a focus on Social Security and retirement-related benefits. He helps readers understand how policy changes and personal decisions can impact their Social Security income, from avoiding common mistakes to navigating issues like benefit reductions and garnishments due to debt. He also breaks down complex topics like Medicare interactions and payment projections so readers can better plan for retirement.