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Realtors Predict House Prices Will Fall In These 9 Popular Arizona Towns

Are these cities on your radar?

By Josh Koebert , Edited by Calista Headrick

Updated Nov. 6, 2026

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Buying a home in the Grand Canyon State might sound like a dream come true, until you look at the price tag. For many, the state's housing market is a bit too pricey. Luckily, real estate agents are predicting falling home prices in several popular towns across Arizona.

Don't expect a crash, though. Realtor.com's third-quarter 2026 Market Clock report rates the Phoenix metro as "late balanced, loosening," meaning neither buyers nor sellers have a clear edge, but conditions are tilting toward buyers. So far, the declines have been modest, with typical home values down 0.5% to 3.4% over the past year in most of the cities below.

Whether you want to build a retirement plan in Arizona or start a fresh chapter at any stage, these cities might be worth a second look.

Editor's note: All housing data comes from the Zillow Home Value Index as of Sept. 30, 2026, unless otherwise stated.

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Buckeye

Average home prices: $391,189

In the last several years, Buckeye has seen a significant number of new homes built.

"Buyers now have more choices, and resale homes are often competing directly with builder incentives such as mortgage rate buy-downs and closing cost assistance," says Jim Gruler, Arizona-licensed real estate broker and co-founder of Seeking Agents. "That combination is putting downward pressure on resale pricing."

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Maricopa

Average home prices: $340,112

Although many buyers are interested in moving to Maricopa, growing inventory could lead to lower sales prices. "Increased inventory, combined with affordability challenges, means sellers often need to price more competitively than they did just a few years ago," says Gruler.

Queen Creek

Average home prices: $629,797

"Queen Creek remains a highly desirable community, but the rapid appreciation experienced during the pandemic has slowed," says Gruler.

As in other parts of the state, Queen Creek has seen lots of new homes built in the last decade. Values have held roughly flat over the past year, but homes are sitting longer, taking a median of 65 days to go under contract in September 2026.

"As inventory increases, buyers have become more selective, and homes priced too aggressively are taking longer to sell," says Gruler.

Surprise

Average home prices: $416,014

Just a few years ago, Surprise had an incredibly hot housing market. But recently, "I'm seeing a more balanced market emerge in Surprise," says Gruler.

Of course, homes are continuing to sell. But the prices look quite a bit different from those in 2022. It's possible home prices in the area will continue to fall.

Casa Grande

Average home prices: $315,764

"Continued residential growth and new construction have created more competition for resale homes," says Gruler. "Buyers have more negotiating power today than they did during the height of the market, making realistic pricing increasingly important."

According to Gruler, the biggest mistake sellers can make in this market is pricing their home based on the market from two to three years ago. Things have changed, and prices have adjusted downwards.

Sun City

Average home prices: $295,702

To the northeast of Phoenix, sun seekers have long flocked to Sun City. But slowing demand could lead to falling home prices in the area.

"Canadian buyers traditionally make up a massive portion of the Sun City buyer pool," says Randy Flora, realtor at REMAX Fine Properties. "Until these international buyers return in force, Sun City will face longer days on market and slightly lower sale prices."

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Goodyear

Average home prices: $463,514

On the southern edge of Phoenix, Goodyear tends to offer higher-end homes with luxury details. But with a glut of inventory, this Grand Canyon State city is seeing falling home prices.

"The luxury sector is suffering because of high interest rates, making today's buyers intensely price-sensitive," says Flora. "Unless interest rates begin to lower a bit, Goodyear's market will continue to struggle."

So far, rates have moved in the wrong direction for buyers. According to Realtor.com, mortgage rates rose from 6.66% in late August to 7.40% on Oct. 8, 2026.

Avondale

Average home prices: $392,912

As in other parts of Arizona, Avondale's housing market is being flooded with new builds. With increasing inventory and softening demand, it's only a matter of time before home prices adjust downward here.

"Overall inventory is consistently increasing, outpacing current buyer demand and putting downward pressure on prices," says Flora.

Tempe

Average home prices: $458,515

With more than 50 parks and seemingly endless entertainment options, Tempe has always attracted a crowd. Even though residents continue to enjoy all this city has to offer, home prices are already falling.

Buyers have the upper hand on price, too. In August 2026, about two-thirds of Tempe home sales closed below list price, according to Zillow. "This established market is clearly cooling," says Christy Walker, broker and owner of REMAX Signature.

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Bottom line

Arizona offers lots of sunshine, which could be a great reason to move. When you factor in falling home prices, one of the towns on this list could meet your needs.

Before you jump into buying a home in a new city, try visiting for more than a week to make sure you can envision yourself living there long term. Otherwise, you might make a major financial mistake by purchasing a home in a place you don't want to stay in.

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