10 Jobs That Look Safe Today But Could Shrink Fast by 2034

Artificial intelligence gets most of the attention whenever people talk about disappearing jobs. But the employment outlook is more complicated than a simple story about robots replacing workers. Self-service technology, industry consolidation, and shifts in how Americans shop are already replacing demand in many fields.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects total U.S. employment to grow just 3.1% from 2024 to 2034, considerably slower than during the previous decade. Knowing where the losses could land may help workers get ahead financially before a gradual decline becomes a sudden career problem. Here are the jobs facing notable projected losses.

Editor's note: All employment projections and occupational data come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), unless otherwise stated.

Cashiers

• Expected decline: 10%
• Positions lost: 314,000

Cashiers could experience the largest numerical job loss of any occupation. The BLS projects employment to fall by nearly 314,000 positions, or about 10%, by 2034. Self-checkout stations, mobile ordering, and online shopping allow retailers to serve customers with fewer checkout workers. Stores may still hire cashiers to replace people who leave, but the total number of available positions is expected to shrink.

General office clerks

• Expected decline: 7%
• Positions lost: 178,000

General office clerks handle everyday tasks like filing, answering phones, preparing documents, and updating records. Employment is projected to decline by roughly 178,000 jobs, or nearly 7%. Digital filing systems and office software now complete or simplify much of this routine work. Employers may increasingly spread the remaining administrative duties among fewer workers instead of maintaining a large clerical team.

Customer service representatives

• Expected decline: 5%
• Positions lost: 154,000

Customer service has long appeared relatively secure because nearly every company has customers who need help. Even so, the BLS projects the occupation to lose about 154,000 jobs, a decline of roughly 5%. Chatbots, mobile apps, automated phone menus, and self-service portals can now resolve many basic questions. Human representatives are more likely to remain valuable for complicated billing, insurance, and account problems.

Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks

• Expected decline: 6%
• Positions lost: 94,000

This category is projected to lose about 94,000 jobs, or nearly 6%, by 2034. Cloud-based accounting programs can import transactions, match payments, create reports, and flag discrepancies with far less manual entry. That does not mean accounting itself is disappearing. In fact, accountants and auditors are projected to grow. Clerical workers who develop analytical, advisory, or software skills may be better positioned than those focused mainly on data entry.

Fast-food cooks

• Expected decline: 13%
• Positions lost: 90,000

Fast-food cooking may seem difficult to automate, but the occupation is projected to decline by more than 90,000 jobs, or about 13%. Restaurants are redesigning kitchens, simplifying menus, and using equipment that lets fewer employees prepare more orders. On top of this, some restaurants might reclassify traditional line cooks into broader categories, such as food-service roles, which can shift employment numbers on paper.

Shipping, receiving, and inventory clerks

• Expected decline: 8%
• Positions lost: 66,000

Employment for shipping, receiving, and inventory clerks is projected to decline by approximately 66,000 jobs, or nearly 8%. Thanks to advancements like barcode scanners, radio-frequency identification systems, warehouse software, and automated inventory tracking, it no longer takes much time to count goods and stay on top of shipments. Warehouses may continue to grow, but that doesn't directly translate into more hiring.

Bank tellers

• Expected decline: 13%
• Positions lost: 45,000

Employment for these positions is expected to shrink by around 13%, which is about 45,000 jobs. Mobile check deposit, online transfers, direct deposit, and advanced ATMs have reduced the number of transactions that still take place inside physical banks. Some banks may even close locations altogether, moving much of their services online. Remaining employees may find themselves helping customers with more complex problems, rather than simply processing deposits.

Data entry keyers

• Expected decline: 26%
• Positions lost: 37,000

Data entry keyers face one of the steepest percentage declines on the list. The BLS expects employment to fall by nearly 26%, representing roughly 37,000 jobs. Documents can increasingly be scanned, imported, and transferred between systems without having to retype the information. Employers still need people to verify unusual records and correct errors, but fewer workers may be required for straightforward entry.

News analysts, reporters, and journalists

• Expected decline: 4%
• Positions lost: 1,900

Employment for reporters and journalists is expected to decline around 4% by 2034. The pressure doesn't just come from AI, though. Newspaper circulation and advertising revenue have been under strain for several years, which has led to staff consolidations. Reporters with specialized knowledge, multimedia skills, or strong local sources may have an advantage in the tight market.

Elementary school teachers

• Expected decline: 2%
• Positions lost: 28,000

Teaching may sound insulated from change, but elementary school teacher employment is projected to decline by about 2% outside of special education. The issue is not necessarily classroom automation. Instead, this career is directly impacted by declining birth rates. With fewer children in school, districts may cut back on teacher hiring. Still, retirements and career changes are expected to create substantial replacement openings each year.

Bottom line

The jobs projected to shrink by 2034 aren't always related to new AI technologies. Instead, many are familiar jobs that are declining due to their own unique reasons. Workers in these fields may not need to change careers immediately, but the projections are a useful signal to start building new skills before competition for openings increases.

One practical step is to test a new skill through freelance, part-time, or project-based work while keeping a steady paycheck. That could help you earn extra money now while also creating a backup path if your current occupation becomes less secure.