Jim Cramer Says There's a Better Time to Buy the SpaceX Dip - Here's When

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) has fallen roughly 50% from its June all-time high, and the selloff has been swift enough to test the financial fitness of anyone who bought shares near the top.

CNBC's Jim Cramer said on July 28 that he remains bullish on the long-term story but urged investors not to commit heavily before the August 6 lockup expiration, when a large wave of insider shares becomes eligible to sell. The mechanics of the lockup, the timeline, and the analyst picture all factor into the call.

The stock has dropped about 50% from its all-time high of $225.64

SpaceX debuted at $135 on June 12, opened at $150, and surged to an all-time high of $225.64 by June 16, briefly reaching a $3 trillion valuation that surpassed both Amazon and Microsoft, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The stock has since fallen roughly 50% from that peak, trading near $112 as of late July.

The speed of the decline stands out for a company that went public only weeks earlier. SpaceX dropped from the third most valuable company in the world to a stock trading below its IPO-day opening price in about six weeks.

Cramer said on July 28 to wait for the lockup to drag shares lower

Cramer told viewers on Mad Money on July 28 to buy a little if they must but to avoid going big before the August 6 lockup expiration, as reported by CNBC. He added that even a strong earnings report on August 4 may not be enough to offset the selling pressure two days later.

Cramer stressed this is a timing call, not a bearish one. He remains optimistic about Elon Musk and the company's long-term position in satellite internet, launch services, and AI infrastructure. The recommendation is about patience, not avoidance.

About 911.5 million insider shares become eligible to sell on August 6

Approximately 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors will become eligible for sale on August 6, more than doubling SpaceX's current public float, according to Benzinga. The lockup schedule from SpaceX's SEC filings outlines additional releases after August 6. Key dates and figures include the following.

• August 6 first lockup wave of approximately 911.5 million shares.
• Further releases could expand the tradable float to 40% by December 8.
• Elon Musk's personal stake remains restricted until mid-2027.
• SpaceX reports earnings on August 4, two trading days before the lockup.

More shares available for sale tend to push prices lower

A lockup expiration lets early investors and insiders who were previously restricted from selling begin trading their shares on the open market. When the number of shares available for sale increases sharply in a short window, supply outpaces demand, and prices typically decline.

The math matters for your position. SpaceX's public float would more than double overnight on August 6, and not every insider who becomes eligible to sell will hold. The selling pressure may be temporary, but the short-term impact on the stock price could be significant.

SpaceX's AI computing contracts carry cancellation risk

Cramer flagged that SpaceX's agreements to rent excess AI computing capacity to Anthropic and Alphabet can be canceled by either party with 90-day notice, as reported by CNBC. Neither customer is locked in for the long term.

The cancellation clauses matter because a portion of SpaceX's revenue story depends on AI infrastructure. Revenue from satellite internet and launch services has a more established track record, but the newer AI segment carries less certainty. Investors may want to weigh how much of the valuation rests on contracts that either side could exit in three months.

Other investors are divided between buying the dip and waiting

Gary Black of Future Fund predicted SpaceX could fall below $100, saying shareholders are not doing the valuation math, while Ark Invest's Cathie Wood continued adding SpaceX exposure, recently purchasing $21.3 million in shares, as reported by Insider Monkey.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintained an overweight rating and a $300 target, valuing SpaceX's launch and broadband operations at about $136 a share, as noted by Invezz. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale holds a strong buy rating with an $800 target. The range from $115 to $800 shows how divided the Street remains.

The August 4 earnings report lands two days before the lockup

SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company on August 4, creating a two-day window between the results and the lockup expiration on August 6. Strong numbers could give insiders a reason to hold rather than sell, which would reduce the selling pressure Cramer expects.

Weak or mixed results would have the opposite effect, giving newly eligible sellers an additional reason to exit. The compressed timeline between earnings and lockup means both events will likely influence the stock price at the same time, making early August a particularly volatile stretch for SpaceX shareholders.

Bottom line

Cramer's call is straightforward since SpaceX has a compelling long-term story in satellite internet, launch, and AI infrastructure, but the August 6 lockup expiration creates a near-term supply overhang that could push the stock lower. Buying before roughly 911.5 million new shares hit the market carries timing risk that patience could help you avoid.

August 6 is the date worth circling, and having must-have investing apps makes it straightforward to set price alerts for when the lockup pressure materializes. The call here is about letting the supply-demand imbalance play out before committing capital you do not want to see decline further in the short term.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.

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