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Why Current Events Make This Summer a Bad Time to Buy a House

Would-be homeowners are wary of the current climate.

By Heather Bien , Edited by Calista Headrick

Updated May 21, 2026

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From sky-high gas prices to uncertainty in financial markets, many Americans are currently focused on building savings rather than taking the plunge into a new (and large) investment. Buying a home is one of the biggest and most expensive decisions you can make, and for many, it needs to be carefully timed with larger macro trends. But, if you've taken the time to prepare yourself financially, you might find that you're ready to make a move even when the timing isn't quite perfect.

So, should you buy in summer 2026? The answer is never black-and-white, but here are eight reasons why current events make this summer look like a particularly bad time to buy a new house.

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Mortgage rates remain high

If you're still hoping 2021-era mortgage rates are ready for a comeback, you might find yourself waiting a long while. Mortgage rates are currently sitting at an average of 6.37%. Though that is slightly lower than the year-over-year average of 6.76%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is 5.72%.

These numbers, seemingly high after a few years of rock-bottom rates, are on par with pre-pandemic rates. Just don't compare your new interest rate to your neighbor who bought in 2021; sometimes it's best not to know how low your monthly payment could have been.

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Home prices remain elevated

Home prices have yet to drop back to pre-pandemic levels from their peak in 2022, and the NAR affordability index is still roughly 35% below pre-COVID levels. Both of these facts point toward skipping a home purchase in 2026, unless you find a house that checks off all your boxes and is priced to sell.

There is some good news, however. Because household wage growth has outpaced home price growth, houses are slowly becoming more affordable for those ready to take the plunge.

Inventory is falling

Housing inventory is currently high for post-pandemic years, but it's falling. And that gives sellers more leverage when evaluating offers. If a seller doesn't feel stressed about pulling their home off the market and relisting it, then your handwritten note might not earn you the brownie points you hoped for. Either you give them the price they want, or they'll wait.

Tariffs impact homebuilding

Tariffs are the buzzword of the year, and not in a good way. These extra costs levied on imported goods are impacting renovations, particularly when it comes to materials sourced from abroad.

Canadian lumber, a critical building material, is subject to a 15% tariff, while aluminum and steel, which are necessary in projects like HVAC work, could face a whopping 50% tariff. That makes many renovation projects, even those that were well planned, unsustainable.

Buyer and seller confidence continues to be low

U.S. buyer confidence is at an all-time low, with 67% of Americans indicating that they believe it's a bad time to buy, given macro events that are impacting the world at large.

While this can impact the market positively, if it means that there's less competition as a buyer, it can also mean some sellers will hold off on selling their house for now, leading to less inventory.

The Q1 median sale price is over $400,000

The median sale price has consistently dropped for the past five quarters, but it's still up 22.6% since 2020. If you live in a low-cost-of-living area, that number might scare you off — and it should. For many potential buyers, it may make more sense to wait until prices drop a bit more.

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Prices are historically highest in summer

Summer is almost always the most expensive time of year to buy a new home, with families rushing to get settled in their new spot just in time for the new school year.

The only upside is that if you're a seller, this is the perfect time to capitalize on buyers eager

It might be harder to sell

If you need to sell your home to afford your new one, now is not the time to make that risky assessment. Because inventory is currently hanging out longer than it might otherwise, your home might become just another open house on Sunday. The last thing you want is to go under contract on your dream home, then find that you can't sell your current home.

Bottom line

While waiting to buy a home might seem like the best decision, particularly given the current economic climate and worldwide events that are stressing markets, waiting might not be the best decision either.

To assess whether a home is the right move for your particular situation, it can be helpful to meet with a financial advisor or HUD-approved housing counselor. Home prices are not expected to drop this year, but an expert can advise you on your personal financial readiness and determine if buying at this point is a smart homeowner move for the future.

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