Changing technology, automation, and shifting consumer demand have reshaped office work and trade jobs alike. Many vocations that once offered steady paychecks and long careers have faded away.
If you're thinking about retraining for a new career that will help you stop living paycheck to paycheck, it's worth knowing which trades are shrinking and which still offer long-term stability.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the following 10 trade jobs are expected to lose workers over the next decade, with market projections for 2024 to 2034.
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Boilermakers
Projected growth: -2%
A boilermaker installs, maintains, and repairs large metal tanks, boilers, and pressure vessels used in power plants, factories, and other industrial sites.
This field is on the decline, with jobs decreasing as fewer new coal-fired power plants are built. The BLS notes that much of the remaining demand is tied to maintenance and repair rather than new construction, which limits overall job growth.
In addition, many large components are now manufactured off-site and assembled using automated systems, reducing the need for traditional boilermaker labor in the field.
Welder
Projected growth: 2%
Welders use heat and specialized equipment to fuse metal parts for construction, manufacturing, and repair work.
While the BLS expects to see some growth, jobs are expected to grow at a much slower pace than average for all professions overall.
Automation has increasingly taken over many repetitive welding tasks. Robotic systems are now common in factories, especially in car and heavy equipment manufacturing.
Vending machine repair
Projected growth: -3%
The BLS projects fewer jobs for vending machine repair workers as newer machines become more reliable and easier to replace than repair. Additionally, many modern systems rely on modular parts that can be swapped out quickly.
At the same time, the total number of traditional vending machines has declined as workplaces shift toward smart kiosks, micro-markets, and cashless retail systems.
Machinists
Projected growth: -2%
Machinists set up, operate, and program equipment to make machine parts that meet exacting specifications. Although crucial work, employment for machinists and die makers is declining due to advances in automation and computer-controlled manufacturing.
The BLS reports that computer numerical control (CNC) machines now allow fewer workers to produce the same volume of parts.
While skilled machinists are still needed to program and maintain equipment, overall demand is shrinking as technology-driven gains reduce the need for workers.
Pressers and textile workers
Projected growth: -13%
Textile pressing jobs are projected to decline sharply as clothing production continues to move (or remain) overseas and automated finishing equipment becomes more common.
According to the BLS, domestic textile manufacturing has steadily contracted over the past decade. Remaining jobs are increasingly concentrated in specialized or niche operations, offering fewer long-term opportunities for new workers entering the field.
Shoe and leather workers and repairers
Projected growth: -4%
BLS data shows negative projected growth for shoe and leather workers and repairers.
On one hand, it's not surprising: the cobbler profession is an old-school trade. Yet it's notable that fewer people are repairing shoes and leather goods now than a decade ago.
Despite a rising interest in going green, many consumers prefer to replace shoes rather than repair them due to low prices, fast-fashion trends, and a vast secondhand market of gently-worn goods.
While some demand remains for custom or high-end repairs, these positions are limited and often concentrated in small, local shops.
Sewing machine operators
Projected growth: -11%
Sewing machine operators face one of the largest projected employment declines among production occupations. The BLS attributes this drop to automation and the continued offshoring of apparel manufacturing.
Advanced sewing robots and automated cutting systems now handle tasks that once required large numbers of human operators, significantly reducing labor needs.
Printing press operators
Projected growth: -8%
Employment for printing press operators is projected to decline as the already diminished demand for printed materials flattens further. The BLS cites the shift toward digital media, online advertising, and electronic documents as major factors.
Even within commercial printing, newer presses require fewer operators, further limiting job opportunities in this field.
Masons
Projected growth: 2%
Masonry jobs are expected to grow more slowly than average, according to BLS projections. While construction activity continues, builders are increasingly shifting toward alternative materials and prefabricated systems that reduce the need for masonry labor.
The physically grueling nature of the work and limited scalability also constrain long-term growth compared to other construction specialties.
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Oil and gas workers
Projected growth: 1%
Employment in oil and gas extraction is projected to grow much more slowly than average as efficiency gains allow companies to produce more energy with fewer workers.
In addition, long-term shifts toward renewable energy and cleaner fuels may further limit job expansion in this sector.
Bucking the trend
It's not all doom and gloom, though; many trade jobs are seeing significant growth. The demand for general construction laborers, as one example, is projected to grow "much faster than average" over the next decade, with 109,000 new jobs added.
The BLS puts a construction laborer's median pay at $22.14 per hour, but union laborers can earn close to $50 an hour, according to Carson Starkey.
Starkey is a lead organizer for the Northern Midwest Regional Council of Carpenters. He says Gen Z is showing a "growing interest in trade jobs" and notes a "solid opportunity in general construction labor."
Bottom line
Trade jobs have long been seen as reliable alternatives to office work, but not all skilled careers provide the same long-term security. Automation, outsourcing, and changing consumer habits are shrinking demand for several — but not all — hands-on, traditional trades.
Before committing time or money to any training, it's smart to closely examine BLS job projections and consider how easily your existing skills and interests might transfer to growing fields.
Taking stock of your market "flexibility" can help prepare yourself financially for economic downturns, especially as the job market continues to evolve at a breakneck clip.
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