Retirement Social Security

2026 COLA Forecast: Here’s How Much Social Security Checks Could Grow

Here's how much you can expect your Social Security check to increase next year.

By Curt Fiers

Updated Sept. 1, 2025

Every fall, millions of Americans wait to hear how much their Social Security checks will grow the following year. The 2026 cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is expected to provide a modest boost, but it may not stretch as far as many hope.

Here's what you need to know about the upcoming COLA increase and how it could impact your finances.

What is COLA and why does it matter?

The cost-of-living adjustment is tied to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). If prices go up from one year to the next, the Social Security Administration increases benefits to help recipients keep up.

COLA is one of the few ways retirees and those on fixed incomes can get a raise without needing to work longer or invest more. It's a critical part of retirement income planning.

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The estimated 2026 COLA increase

While nothing is official yet, early projections suggest a 2.7% increase in Social Security benefits for 2026. For someone receiving $1,800 per month, this would mean a bump of about $49.

The official announcement will likely come in mid-October 2025, after the government releases September inflation data. Checks reflecting the increase will begin arriving in January 2026.

How it compares to recent years

This year's estimated 2.7% adjustment is smaller than some previous increases. In 2023, for example, benefits went up 3.2%, and 2022 saw a historic jump of 8.7%. Still, a 2.7% raise would fall within the upper half of COLA increases over the past 10 years.

Despite these yearly boosts, COLA often lags behind inflation. Over the last decade, inflation has outpaced the COLA adjustment in eight out of 10 years, reducing the real value of Social Security income.

Who benefits most?

People who rely heavily on Social Security, particularly retirees without pensions or investment income, tend to benefit most from these annual increases. A few extra dollars can go a long way when you're budgeting for food, housing, or medical care on a fixed income.

What your 2026 payment might look like

Here's how the 2.7% increase could affect average monthly payments:

Retired workers currently receiving $2,006.69 would see about $2,060.87.
Retired couples with a combined $4,013.38 could receive about $4,121.74.
Disability recipients averaging $1,582.38 may get $1,625.10.

These figures are averages, so your specific increase could differ based on your benefit amount.

Possible tax and health care impacts

A higher Social Security benefit might also mean a higher tax bill. If the increase pushes your income over certain thresholds, you could owe more in federal taxes or have a larger portion of your benefits taxed.

Medicare costs may rise too. Part B premiums are projected to increase by over $20 in 2026. If your income crosses the threshold for IRMAA, you may also face surcharges on Parts B and D.

Other ways to increase your benefit

If you're not yet receiving benefits, waiting longer to file could boost your monthly amount. Social Security payments grow the longer you delay, up to age 70.

Still working? Your benefits are based on your 35 highest-earning years. Replacing a low-earning year with a higher one can improve your monthly check. You might also qualify for higher benefits through a former spouse's record.

Bottom line

The 2026 COLA will bring a small but helpful increase to Social Security checks. However, higher taxes and Medicare costs may take some of that gain away.

Taking time to reevaluate your retirement strategy and expenses can help you make the most of this adjustment. Paired with smart planning, the COLA boost can be a meaningful step toward achieving a stress-free retirement.

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Editor's Note: Portions of this story were drafted with assistance from generative AI tools. All final creative decisions, edits, and fact checking were done by human writers and editors.