2026 COLA Forecast: Here's How Much Social Security Checks Will Grow

Every year, Social Security recipients receive a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) that increases their monthly checks. Knowing what to expect from this adjustment can help you better plan your finances in the upcoming year — including whether or not you'll need to supplement your Social Security benefits.

Here's everything you need to know about the COLA increase and how to make the most of your Social Security check.

What is COLA, and why does it matter?

COLA is an annual adjustment to Social Security benefits based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The Social Security Administration (SSA) compares the average CPI-W of the current year to the same period in the previous year.

If prices go up, so do benefits. This adjustment aims to ensure Americans can continue to afford essentials like food and housing that rise in price.

The expected COLA increase for 2026

Preliminary estimates suggest that everyone will see an increase of around 2.7%. This means that an individual currently receiving $1,800 will see a monthly increase of close to $49.

The official announcement will come in mid-October. This timing is due to the release of the September CPI-W data. Last year, COLA was announced on October 10.

Social Security recipients can calculate their 2026 COLA increase when the SSA announces the adjustment in mid-October. Each year, recipients are informed in December of their new payment amount. Therefore, your December 2025 payment will reflect this increase; however, you will not see its effect in your bank account until January 2026.

How the expected 2026 COLA adjustment compares to previous years

If this year's COLA adjustment is around 2.7% as expected, it will be much lower than in some recent years. For instance, the 2023 COLA was 3.2%, and 2022 saw a significant increase of 8.7%. Still, the 2026 COLA will likely be in the top 50% of increases seen in the last decade.

Unfortunately, these increases rarely keep pace with inflation. For instance, the 2024 increase was 2.5% even though inflation increased 2.9%. In reality, inflation has outpaced COLA adjustments in 80% of the last decade.

Who benefits most from the COLA boost

Individuals with fixed incomes will benefit the most from the expected COLA increase in 2026. This is true even though the SSA sends higher checks to everyone receiving retirement or disability benefits.

That's because these individuals don't have access to additional funds. If prices increase, they have to figure out how to pay them. COLA increases are especially essential for those without pensions or investment income.

What your new payment could look like

While the net benefit of the 2026 COLA can vary by individual, everyone will see an increase in their check. For instance, the average Social Security check of a retiree is $2,006.69. A check of this amount will increase to $2,060.87.

For retired couples who both receive benefits, the average monthly check is $4,013.38. Their estimated combined Social Security income will increase to $4,121.74. Finally, the average disability check is $1,582.38. After the 2026 COLA, a check of this amount would increase to $1,625.10.

How the COLA could affect taxes and benefits

The 2026 COLA increase could have major tax implications. If the increase pushes you into a higher tax bracket when combined with your other income, you will end up paying more in taxes. The adjustment could also increase the taxable portion of your Social Security.

You could also see effects on your health care costs. Medicare Part B premiums are expected to increase by more than $20 next year. Also, Medicare Part B and D premiums will increase if you cross the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA) threshold.

Other ways to boost your Social Security income

For many, the 2026 COLA estimated increase will not be enough to counter inflation. Fortunately, there may be other ways to boost your Social Security income. Simply waiting to file is an option, as your benefit increases the longer you wait, all the way up to age 70.

You can also continue working to increase your check. Benefits are based on your highest-earning 35 years. If you replace a low-earning year with a higher-earning one, your check will go up. You can also verify if you're eligible for higher benefits on a former spouse's record.

Bottom line

The 2026 COLA expected increase certainly gets a lot of attention. While that extra income will help, rising Medicare premiums and persistent inflation could limit how much of it stays in your pocket. Beyond delaying benefits or working longer, you can also find ways to cut back on daily expenses.

It's essential to review your broader retirement strategy periodically. Pairing the annual COLA boost with thoughtful planning can help you maintain financial stability and move closer to the goal of a truly stress-free retirement.