Retirement Social Security

Social Security Reality Check: 5 Steps To Estimate What's Coming Your Way

A clear look at your Social Security benefits can help you plan smarter and avoid surprises in retirement.

By Adam Palasciano

Edited by Laura Hohenstein

Updated Dec. 10, 2025

As retirement nears, understanding how much you'll receive from Social Security becomes a critical part of deciding when — and how — to stop working. Many retirees rely on Social Security for a substantial portion of their income, yet not all people may take the time to verify their earnings history or calculate what their monthly check may look like.

Getting an accurate estimate now helps you spot errors, set realistic expectations, and build a stronger financial strategy. Taking action early can help you set yourself up for retirement with more confidence and clarity.

Here are five steps to help you estimate your future Social Security benefit.

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Create a my Social Security account

Your first step is to create a my Social Security account through the Social Security Administration (SSA). This secure online portal gives you access to essential records and tools that help clarify what your future benefits may look like.

Once your account is set up, you can view your official Social Security statement, which outlines your estimated retirement, disability, and survivor benefits. You'll also be able to download a benefit verification letter, often required for financial planning and loan applications. Perhaps most importantly, the account provides your complete earnings history, which is the foundation of how your benefit is calculated. Reviewing these documents regularly helps ensure that the SSA has accurate information on file.

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Carefully review your earnings history

Your Social Security benefits are primarily determined by your 35 highest-earning years. If the SSA records show missing or incorrect income for any of those years, your estimated benefit may be far lower than it should be. That's why reviewing your history line by line is one of the most important steps in this process.

Look for years that show unusually low earnings, especially if you know you earned more than what is shown. Years listed as $0 could be red flags — even one missing year could lower your lifetime average and cut your benefit. If you find discrepancies, contact the SSA with supporting documents, such as W-2 forms or tax returns. Catching errors early helps ensure your future benefit reflects your true work history.

Understand these key retirement ages

Before estimating your benefit, you need a clear understanding of the ages at which you can claim Social Security and how those choices affect your payout. These ages determine whether your benefit is reduced, paid at full value, or increased with additional credits.

Early retirement age (62): You can begin collecting Social Security at age 62, but doing so permanently reduces your benefit by as much as 30%, depending on your full retirement age (FRA). This reduction stays in place for life, which can significantly affect long-term income.

Full retirement age (66 to 67): Your FRA depends on your birth year. For anyone born in 1960 or later, FRA is 67. Claiming benefits at this age ensures you receive 100% of your calculated benefit.

Delayed retirement (up to age 70): For every year you delay claiming beyond your FRA — up to age 70 — your benefit increases by about 8% per year. This guaranteed boost is one of the most reliable ways to increase lifetime Social Security income.

Understanding how timing affects your payout is essential before running calculations.

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Carefully calculate future monthly benefits

After reviewing your earnings and understanding your timing options, your next step is to estimate how much you will receive — the SSA provides several helpful retirement calculators to help you do this.

The SSA's variety of online calculator tools uses your actual earnings history to project your benefit based on different claiming ages. These tools allow you to compare claiming at ages 62, 67, or 70 — giving you a clear sense of how much income you can expect each month. Running these numbers now helps you decide which claiming strategy best matches your goals and financial needs.

Consider life factors that may impact your benefits

Social Security calculations don't tell the full story — real-world expenses and risks can affect how far your monthly check will stretch. As you estimate benefits, remember to factor in some additional considerations.

Rising cost of living: Inflation can reduce purchasing power, even with annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs).
Taxes on benefits: Depending on your combined income, up to 85% of your Social Security benefits may be taxable, which may reduce the net payment amount you can rely on in retirement.
Health care and Medicare expenses: Premiums, copays, and out-of-pocket costs tend to increase with age.
Unexpected financial shocks: Home repairs, caregiving needs, or medical events can change your budget quickly.
Social Security program changes: While benefits are secure for now, the long-term solvency of the program remains uncertain, which may influence future benefit adjustments.

Evaluating these factors can help you form more realistic expectations about your retirement income.

Bottom line

Estimating your Social Security benefit is one of the most valuable steps you can take as you prepare for retirement. By creating an online account, reviewing your earnings history, and using SSA tools to analyze various claiming ages, you can make more informed decisions that align with your long-term financial goals.

Understanding your projected benefit now allows you to strengthen your retirement plan and anticipate future needs. With clarity and preparation, you can approach retirement with confidence instead of uncertainty — and decide how Social Security fits into your broader strategy to keep more cash in your wallet.

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