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Mark Cuban Warns 5 Key Industries Could Crumble in the Next Recession

Mark Cuban has repeatedly warned that certain business models tend to break first when recessions hit.

By Jordan Major

Edited by Laura Hohenstein

Updated Feb. 4, 2026

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When the economy starts to wobble, investors often look to people who've already lived through multiple boom-and-bust cycles. Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban is one of them.

Across interviews, podcasts, and posts on social media, Cuban has repeatedly flagged certain industries and business models that tend to crack when consumer spending tightens, capital dries up, or technology shifts too fast.

Taken together, his comments point to five areas investors may want to watch closely heading into the next recession.

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Media sector

Cuban has been unusually blunt about the media business. In a 2025 interview with Semafor, the former "Shark Tank" co-host, who actually started his career in media, called it "the worst industry in the history of industries."

The problem, in his view, is that artificial intelligence has wiped out many of the barriers that once protected legacy media companies. With AI-powered video, voice, and content tools, creators no longer need studios, distribution deals, or expensive infrastructure to compete. That erodes the competitive moat traditional media companies once relied on.

As Cuban put it, AI tools now allow creative people to produce and distribute content without being "dependent on third parties," a shift he believes will have massive implications for the industry.

"Now with AI, with the Soras of the world, the ability for somebody creative to not have to be dependent on a third party to create the output is just going to have so many implications."

At the same time, media remains heavily dependent on advertising, which is often one of the first expenses businesses cut during economic downturns. When recessions hit, ad budgets shrink, subscriptions slow, and high content costs become harder to justify.

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Restaurants, clothing brands, and liquor companies

Cuban has repeatedly advised entrepreneurs and investors to steer clear of restaurants, fashion labels, and liquor brands, especially when the economy turns south.

The core problem, he says, is simple: "There are no barriers to entry."

Anyone can open a restaurant, start a clothing line, or launch a spirits brand. That leads to overcrowded markets where margins are thin even in good times. In a recession, those margins can disappear entirely.

"Don't invest in the restaurant. Don't invest in the clothing label. Don't invest in the liquor company," Cuban said. "That is death."

Restaurants face rising labor, rent, and food costs just as customers pull back on discretionary spending. Clothing brands struggle with inventory risk, trend volatility, and fierce competition. Liquor companies often rely on branding and marketing spend that becomes harder to justify when sales slow.

These industries are notoriously challenging to succeed in due to low barriers to entry and oversaturated markets. Many try, but few thrive.

Small cities and rural economies

While not a traditional "industry," Cuban has warned that small towns and rural economies could be hit hardest in the next recession, and that has real implications for investors.

He has described what some have called a "Red Rural Recession," where federal budget cuts, cancelled grants, and layoffs are already weighing on local economies even before a broader downturn begins.

Businesses operating primarily in rural areas often lack the scale, access to capital, and financial buffers needed to withstand prolonged economic stress. When consumer budgets tighten, discretionary spending falls first, and that impact is magnified in less affluent regions.

Industries concentrated in these areas, such as local retail, hospitality, and healthcare services, are often more exposed when economic conditions worsen.

AI infrastructure and data centers

Cuban has drawn a striking comparison between today's artificial intelligence boom and the search-engine wars of the 1990s. Back then, dozens of companies poured money into competing platforms. Eventually, one winner emerged, and most of the rest disappeared. He believes AI could follow a similar path.

Right now, companies are spending enormous sums on AI infrastructure, data centers, and computing power in case the market turns out to be winner-take-all. Cuban has warned that this kind of spending becomes dangerous when companies are forced to "live up to the economics."

In a recession, cheap capital dries up, and investors demand profitability, not just growth. If AI revenue doesn't scale quickly enough, heavily leveraged infrastructure investments could turn from competitive advantages into financial liabilities.

Cuban's concern isn't AI itself; it's overbuilding without clear differentiation. In his view, only a handful of players will ultimately justify the scale of today's spending.

Platform-dependent businesses

One of Cuban's clearest warnings involves companies that depend heavily on platforms they don't control.

In a post on X, Cuban summed up his view bluntly after calling Amazon and Walmart seller fees "insane and unsustainable." He added: "When I look at investing in companies, if you have any level of dependency on Amazon, it's a negative."

While Amazon is the most obvious example, the entrepreneur's warning applies broadly to businesses built on third-party platforms, including marketplaces, app stores, and algorithm-driven ecosystems.

The risk is structural. When sales slow during a recession, platform owners look to protect their own margins. That can mean higher fees, algorithm changes, reduced visibility, or increased competition from the platform's own products.

For businesses that depend on those platforms for customer acquisition or distribution, the result can be brutal: shrinking margins just as demand weakens.

Bottom line

Mark Cuban's recession warnings aren't about predicting the next market crash or calling the exact timing of a downturn. Instead, they focus on something more practical: which business models tend to break under pressure.

Industries with low barriers to entry, high fixed costs, reliance on discretionary spending, or dependence on platforms they don't control are the ones Cuban believes face the greatest risk against good financial fitness.

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