Here's the Average Social Security Benefit and How the New COLA Could Change It

In 2025, the average Social Security check is $2008.31 per month for a single retiree, $3,089 for a retired couple, and $1,582.95 for a disabled worker. If 2026's cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) lands near the current forecast of about 2.7%, then a typical retiree will see around $54 more per month in 2026, while couples will receive roughly $83 more, and disabled workers around $43.

Every January, the Social Security Administration (SSA) adjusts Social Security benefits for inflation through the COLA to make sure benefit amounts keep pace with prices for everyday things like food, utilities, and medical care. Whether inflation is running hot or cooling off, COLAs protect buying power and help benefit recipients maintain their standard of living.

Make sure you're prepared for the latest adjustments so you don't make any money mistakes.

How the 2026 COLA is decided

By law, the SSA bases the COLA on inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W), a price index published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The SSA compares the average CPI-W for July, August, and September to the same three months the previous year. The percentage change, rounded to the nearest tenth, becomes the COLA for the following January.

If the third-quarter CPI-W shows little change from the previous year, then the COLA is modest, whereas if there is a significant increase, then the COLA will be larger. Because it uses third-quarter data, the COLA is typically announced in October, right after the September inflation report.

What experts forecast for the 2026 COLA

Independent groups track inflation during the summer and publish early COLA estimates. The Senior Citizens League's estimate currently points to a COLA of about 2.7% for 2026. This is slightly higher than the 2.5% COLA for 2025.

While nobody can give a truly accurate figure until the inflation report from the BLS is released, a 2.6 to 2.8% estimate does align with the slower inflation environment and the Social Security Trustee's long-term outlook for price growth.

What the COLA percentage looks like in dollars

Assuming the 2.7% forecast is accurate:

• A typical retired worker's check of around $2,009 would rise roughly $54, taking their monthly benefit to $2,062.
• For a two-beneficiary couple currently receiving $3.089, they'll see an increase of about $83, putting them at $3,172 per month.
• An average disabled worker's $1,582 monthly benefit would rise by roughly $43, to $1,626.

Remember that these are only averages, and your COLA is applied to your specific current benefit. Your exact amount depends on lifetime earnings, when you claimed, and whether you receive spousal, survivor, or disability benefits.

How Medicare premiums could change what hits your bank account

Most retirees have their Medicare Part B premium deducted from their Social Security payment. For 2025, the standard Part B premium is $185.00 per month. The Medicare Trustees' mid-year projections suggest the standard Part B premium could rise to about $206.50 in 2026. If that holds, a typical retired worker will see around $21.50 of the COLA absorbed by part B, leaving around $30 to $35 net from the projected 2.6% to 2.8% COLA before taxes and any drug plan costs.

The outlook for prescriptions is a little better, with the average standalone Part D premium to dip from around $38 in 2025 to about $34.50 in 2026. High-income retirees may also face income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) surcharges for parts B and D. However, those are based on a two-year lookback at tax returns, so 2026 premiums typically reflect 2024 income.

What you can do now to prepare

Start by building a simple 2026 budget using the projected COLA of 2.7%. If Medicare is deducted from your benefit, remember to subtract that from your base amount so you can see your estimated net, which is the amount that will actually hit your account. It's also a good idea to compare drug plans and Medicare Advantage options during Medicare's fall Open Enrollment, because a lower Part D premium or better formulary can preserve more of your COLA.

If part of your Social Security is taxable, you can ask SSA to withhold federal tax from your benefit so you don't face a surprise bill next spring. The IRS lets you do that with Form W-4V or through your online SSA account. And, if your 2024 income was unusually high due to a one-time event but has since fallen, you can ask SSA to reduce or remove IRMAA for 2026 by filing Form SSA-44.

It's also smart to double-check your earnings record before year-end. Social Security calculates benefits from your top 35 earning years, so a missing or inaccurate year are lower your overall average, and therefore your baseline benefit, and every COLA that follows, for life. You can review your statement and earnings history by logging into your my Social Security account, and you can request corrections if anything is off. While that won't change your current COLA, it does protect every increase going forward.

The big picture

COLAs are not windfalls. They're a catch-up so your benefit remains inline with prices you can't control. In 2025, the average retired worker's benefit sits at just over $2,000 per month, and early signs point to a modest COLA of around 2.7% for 2026, adding around $54 to the average retiree's monthly check, before deductions.

Plan for a measured increase, focus on the net after Medicare and taxes, and use fall Open Enrollment and basic tax moves to protect your senior benefits as much as you can.